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 Election Thoughts  28 Oct 08

The Brady Effect - I've been thinking a little about the Brady effect and though a few months I thought it would be a big factor now I wonder about a counter Brady effect.  I was talking with someone just yesterday that was in Pennsylvania last week and he was saying Rep Murtha was exactly right in his comments.  And he was using this as evidence there probably was going to be a Brady effect.   His comments reinforced my thought which occurred t o me last week.   That is I bet there are almost as many silent spouses / friends who are close to the "at home" bold bigots.  These spouses / friends back these people up in public but when it comes to voting they will pull the lever for who they feel is the better candidate. ( I was listening to Meet The Press while grading papers tonight 1 Nov 08 and heard them mention the "Reverse Brady Effect".  This made me do an internet search and notice articles dated 17 Oct.  This makes me wonder if my thoughts that occurred about the same time were original thoughts or something I heard while doing something else.  I'm pretty sure I did not read such an article.) The Media Effect - I really think the media effect will have a lot to more to do with the election results than the Brady effect.  I think the media coverage really can sway public opinion.  This wouldn't be bad if the media coverage were a bit more responsible.  For instance Gov Palin's wardrobe coverage was totally blown.  This subject may be interesting and appropriate but all the details should have been put forth at one time.  It makes a big difference to a lot of people that it was aids that went out and purchased the clothes for the family and brought them back to wear.  The media coverage for the first 10 days made it sound like she was out at the store buying the stuff.  Yes you have to wonder about the brain power of the McCain staff and this does reflect badly on the Candidate.  However, this would not have hurt the candidates nearly as much as the true facts.  Once the damage was done.  It is really hard to correct.  This happens way to much in political campaigns. One of the classic case of maligning occurred after a vice-presidential debate.  In fact just last week a friend at work quoted "Who am I, Why am I here" as if the person who is famous for saying it said it as if they were confused at the time.  You can see him deliver that part of the speech at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5Jbmaq4YHA at 7 minutes 13 seconds.  Though it is obvious the speaker delivery of the rest of the speech was poor.  The words he said were not bad.  If the media had given him a pass on presentation he wouldn't be the but of jokes he is today.  But instead the media failed and the public drew a conclusion because of it that was detrimental to the country's well being		Split Power between Parties? - Two weeks ago I was telling people at work it might be good if people in states where the race is close in Senate and Congressional races if they split their votes between parties.  This in order to get some checks and balance between the executive branch and the legislative branch.  Yesterday I heard a relatively well thought out discussion on the topic on NPR.  But I've moved beyond that thought.  I now wonder what would happen if the democrats ended up with a very large majority in the senate - say 75 seats and a very large majority in the house.  I now believe this may be even more beneficial if the objective is checks and balances.  With thin majorities towing the party line will be the norm.  None of the members will have the backbone to challenge the "power brokers" of the party.  However, if there is a big majority you will get leaders to step forward from within the party that will just have to step out and call crap crap.   This theory won't be tested in this election cycle.  Well maybe it could be in the House of Representatives.  However, 58 to 65 Senators is not a big enough margin to expect this outcome. Given the fund raising aspects of elections these days my theory still has to rely on a group of individuals willing to put their seats at risk for the benefit of the country.  With that I encourage you to revisit the thoughts I put forth on Campaign Finance back in 2000.